BARNETT PAPERS IN SOCIAL RESEARCH Re-Examining the Fertility Assumptions for Pacific Asia in the UN‘s 2010 World Population Prospects

Pacific Asia is currently home to some of the lowest fertility rates – and hence the fastest aging populations – in the world. This paper presents a systematic overview of both the reasons for this low fertility, and why it is unlikely to increase fertility significantly in the near future. As well as a comprehensive review of scholarly opinion, the paper examines the uniquely low fertility ideals in the region, the results of a global survey of population experts on the future of Asian fertility, the assumptions of local statistical offices, and the theoretical background of ̳feedback‘ effects. The paper systematically challenges the assumptions presented by the United Nations in their most recent global population projections which are based upon statistical models, suggesting that any assumption of fertility increase is profoundly Eurocentric and ignores the unique demographic experience of Pacific Asia over the past four decades. As such, the theoretical contribution of this work is to challenge the universality of a two-child norm as an endpoint to fertility transition. This is then considered in the context of various countries in South and South-East Asia that are in the midst of rapid fertility decline. The main policy conclusion is that any assumption of an immediate increase in fertility could be extremely counter-productive in terms of leading to complacency among policymakers. Indeed, the paper argues that radical family policy interventions as well as huge cultural shifts in work-life balance and gender roles will be the only way to challenge such low fertility.